Panic: Understanding the War Over Ukraine

There are reportedly 100,000 Russian troops posted on Ukraine’s eastern border. Russian field hospitals are being set up on this border. Russian warships have been stationed on the Black Sea. The American and British governments are beginning to send diplomatic staff and their families back home. Western powers, like the U.S., have committed to sending troops to Eastern Europe, and they are actively sending weapons and munitions to the Ukrainian army. In the words of journalist John Harris, “This is what preparation for war looks like.” When the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was asked about the situation and the imminent threat of war touted by Western officials, he said, “Take a breath. Calm down . . . This is panic.”

To further explain his response, a BBC article stated, “Mr. Zelensky reminded people that his country has lived with the threat of Russian aggression for years–it goes in cycles–and despite the unusual size of the current deployment, he seemed determined to play down the danger.” He continued by saying that Russia amassed a similar presence in the area last spring and “he [does] not see a greater threat now than [then].” Based on his public perspective, the true victims of Russia’s display of strength, and the West’s response, are the Ukrainian economy and the fear of the Ukrainian people.

Russia has long had a strong presence in the area that is now Ukraine for centuries. In fact, both peoples trace their origins to the Kievan Rus empire (879- 1240 CE) which began in modern-day Kyiv, Ukraine. In the recent past, Ukraine has continued to be linked to Russia but in an unequal position. For example, when Ukraine was a republic of the Soviet Union, they faced a man-made famine that we call Holodomor, under the Soviet leadership of Joseph Stalin. The famine lasted from 1932-33 with conservative estimates of 5 million dead in the Soviet Union, and with at least 3.3 million of those being Ukrainian. By early 2019, 16 countries, along with the Vatican, officially recognized this event as a genocide, and it continues to be a scar throughout the nation of 45 million.

In 1949, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was formed with the U.S., Canada, and many Western European nations as its first members. Its original goal was to act as “a deterrent against Soviet aggression [in Europe]” during the Cold War. When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, NATO was not disbanded and has even grown to include former Soviet states that have continued to Westernize. One by one, these countries have become more influenced by “the west” and less by Russia. Ukraine, however, has not yet joined NATO and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, intends to keep it this way. He has called the separation of the Soviet republics from Russia the “Greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”

In 2014, the Ukrainian public seemed to be gaining more independence from their Russian neighbors, and they voted out their pro-Russian president. In response, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine. Russia then proceeded to support Ukrainian separatists in taking large areas of Eastern Ukraine, particularly the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. Since this point, the pro-Russian separatists have continued to resist the Ukrainian military. As of now, this conflict has taken over 14,000 lives.

Bringing events to the present, according to the Washington Post, “Tensions between NATO and Russia have risen to their highest level in years, as Washington and its European allies attempt to deter a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces massed at the border.” Putin made a list of demands: NATO needs to stop expanding, NATO troops must be taken out of countries that joined after 1997 (Eastern Europe), and the U.S. can’t protect its Eastern European allies with nuclear weapons. Putin has now said that “the U.S. and its allies have ignored Russia’s key security demands.” The Kremlin has also said that Ukraine has not fulfilled their side of the 2015 Minsk peace deal, a deal that was meant to end the conflict between Ukrainians and the Russian-backed separatists, that occurred after Russia annexed Crimea. Ukrainians have said that the deal is unfair and they will support it if it is restructured. The Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, added, “Ukraine stands ready for negotiations in Istanbul, as well as in Geneva, Vienna or any other place that is impartial and doesn’t depend on one of the sides, namely Russia.” As of the time this article is being written, the Kremlin has not responded to this request.

The U.S. now says that Russia has 70% of the forces in place that would be necessary for a full-scale invasion. According to the Washington Post, General Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that “A full-scale Russian attack, especially if it reaches urban centers, would be ‘horrific’ and ‘terrible.’” Biden has said that “Russia will be held accountable if it invades.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President continues to respond with a message of calm and the idea that the threat of war is simply “psychological pressure.” He has also continued to accuse Western officials who he associates with widespread panic and destabilization in Ukraine due to the idea that “tomorrow there will be war.” He has also criticized NATO for not making up its mind about whether to admit Ukraine into their alliance, especially due to Russia’s demands against it and the fact that some NATO countries do not feel obligations to help Ukraine as it is not in the NATO alliance.

The summary of what the general public should know is this: Russian forces are currently posted at Ukraine’s border, Russia has a history of invading Ukraine and aiding its dissidents, Russia has made demands of NATO that include not allowing Ukraine into their alliance, NATO has ignored these demands, and western powers have said that there will likely be war while the Ukrainian president has expressed doubt. If there will be war, Russia, Ukraine, and their allies have said that they are ready.