On February 24, 2022, the world watched in horror as the Russian military officially invaded Ukraine after months of increasing the number of soldiers stationed near the border between the two countries. After the initial invasion, the internet was flooded with people’s speculations about where the war would lead, how quickly it would end, and whether or not it would cause World War III. One year later, the invasion fiercely rages on with no clear end in sight. As a moment of reflection for the one-year anniversary of the invasion’s commencement, I decided to provide a brief overview of how events have gone so far, what strategies have been used, and the current state of the conflict.
Hostility between Russia and Ukraine is nothing new. Russia has been involved in conflict with Ukraine, indirectly or directly, for years. One reason for Russia’s interest has been to prevent Ukraine from developing closer ties with western Europe, like other nearby countries have done in the past. Finally, after years of constant conflict, Russia’s military launched a full-scale invasion from the north, east, and south. This event took place in February of 2022, although President Vladimir Putin did not refer to the invasion as a war, but a “special military operation.” At the time, Ukrainians were outgunned and the Russians were able to obtain a significant portion of land (How Ukraine got the Upperhand Against Russia). They even managed to gain control of Kherson, but ultimately failed to overtake Kyiv and Kharkiv. Starting in April, however, Russia decreased the number of large sweeping attacks they performed and instead tried using artillery to attack current Ukrainian defense positions. At this point, the Russian soldiers had taken many losses, and many of their most skilled military members had been killed. Because the invasion was not considered a war by Russia, Russia had trouble finding new men to fight against Ukraine and replace those who had fallen. Meanwhile, many Ukrainian men volunteered to fight and, with help from Western powers, they were trained to be effective soldiers. Ukraine also received weapons from other countries such as the United States and Poland. In September 2022, Ukraine launched its own attack to retake Kherson. Russia redirected troops to Kherson to aid fellow Russians against the Ukranians, leaving the land they had taken in the northeast more vulnerable (How Ukraine got the Upperhand Against Russia). Soldiers from Ukraine began to take back many crucial areas in the northeast, and the Russians fled quickly.
Although the winter so far has seen slower developments in the war, significant events have occurred. First, Ukraine retook Kherson, a regional capital city. With the tide of the war turned against Russia, Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy system, allegedly trying to “freeze” the Ukrainians by leaving them without power. Russia changed tactics in January of this year when they conquered the town of Soledar and Klishcivka and have since been working their way east. There is even evidence that they used a private military force, the Wagner group, to do this. Lately, there has not been much of either side gaining much ground, but there have been heavy exchanges of artillery fire.
Military analysts believe that the next few months will play a crucial role in determining the future of the war and how long the conflict lasts. However, no one seems to think the war will be over by the end of this year. For example, Hein Goemans, a war historian at the University of Rochester, highly doubts conflict will cease before 2023 ends (Historian Predicts how Russia’s War in Ukraine Could End). Both Russia and Ukraine are developing new strategies and preparing for an impending battle that most believe will be a critical moment in the war. Russia is moving away from its winter tactics (trying to cut Ukranians off from the basic necessities of life to weaken them) and have instead been moving large numbers of troops to eastern Ukraine (Ukraine, Russia Set to Launch Spring Offensives: What to Expect | WSJ). Meanwhile, Ukraine is heavily relying on weapons from Western nations. However, they may not arrive in time to defend against a Russian attack. Additionally, it will take time to train individuals to operate the new machinery.
Overall, the war has not gone the way Russia planned, as they underestimated how strongly the Ukranians would fight back and expected the invasion to be over in a matter of days. Throughout the course of the war, Russian strategy has shifted from using skilled manpower, to artillery based tactics, to controlling basic life necessities and using private military forces. Now it seems they may be resorting to using sheer troop numbers and taking advantage of Ukraine’s moments of weakness. Despite this, there will probably be more anniversaries of the initial invasion before the whole ordeal is over, with experts predicting the war will last years and may even involve Russia invading Moldova to “free” Russians there and portray the event as a victory back home.
While it is very unfortunate that the plight of the Ukrainian people will likely continue for quite some time, it is interesting to note the evolution of the war and what we can learn about politics from it. It has provided insight into the complex international ties that lead to war or the maintenance of peace. Despite the learning experience, let’s keep our prayers going up for all people involved in this war until an agreement is reached.
For more information about why analysts don’t see the war coming to a close anytime soon, you can watch these insightful videos:
The Student Movement is the official student newspaper of Andrews University. Opinions expressed in the Student Movement are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors, Andrews University or the Seventh-day Adventist church.